Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
